As gold has soared, there has been much speculation as to when the gold bubble will burst.  And, with its recent slide, many wonder if its already bursting. 

Is gold overvalued?  Taking into consideration its historic pricing in inflation-adjusted dollars, gold is actually nowhere near its previous highs.  At its inflation-adjusted peak in 1980, gold was trading at about $850/ounce.  Based on today’s prices, one would assume that gold is trading at multiples over its historic highs.  In reality, gold would have to reach almost $2,420/ounce to match its inflation-adjusted 1980 high.  

With such widespread uncertainty in the world economy and a deepening concern over the stability of the world’s major currencies, investors are turning to gold as a safe haven.  As a result, gold's prices have skyrocketed.  That being said, is there really any reason for investors to feel any better about the world markets and economy?  In fact, the current pullback is likely no more than a brief respite before the next shoe drops on the economic news front.

Since President Nixon removed the US Dollar (USD) from the gold standard in 1971, our currency has been manipulated by the Federal Reserve to the point of near worthlessness.  Over the 24 months proceeding September 2011, the USD lost as much as 31% against the currencies of Japan, Switzerland, Australia and Canada, and lost more than 20% to the much maligned Euro in the last 18 months alone.  There's no realistic reason to believe this devaluing isn't going to continue.

With the USD and other major currencies in a tailspin, investors are turning to gold as a trusted store of value and the increased demand has driven its prices northward. 

So, will gold's trend continue?  Adjusted for inflation, it would appear there is more room for growth.  Any significant trend downward would depend largely on the world’s economic powers exercising good stewardship.  Given their track record, I’d bet on gold!

Guest Blogger: Nick Smith nick@smithhealth.org

There’s one thing no one is telling you about our current healthcare problems…
Whether you’re working for a large corporation, running a small business, or happen to be unemployed, there’s a good chance you are paying more for healthcare than you should. 

So what is the solution?  I could get really boring and impress you with a bunch of insurance jargon, but instead I’ll sum it up this way.  Over the last 10 years, Congress has passed several laws and tax incentives that could easily decrease your out-of-pocket healthcare expenses by $2,000 to $8,000 annually.  For a variety of reasons, most health insurance agents have not taken the time to adequately understand these changes.

We believe that the key to fighting extreme health insurance costs is YOU, the American consumer, who throughout history has been able to adapt and overcome all types of obstacles. We believe that with the right tools and knowledge everybody can play a role in busting up the currently broken system. 

As we launch new consumer health insurance solutions, we have made some commitments.  We are dedicated to busting up the “old school” approach of the greedy, commission-focused insurance agent. We will team with businesses and individuals, providing them with the knowledge and innovative resources they need.  Together, we will become the solution to out-of-control health insurance costs.
                                                                                                                                                                                                   
ABOUT NICK: Nick Smith, founder of Smith Health, has spent much time and energy learning the nuances of the health insurance industry, as well as the intricacies of the laws and IRS regulations that govern it.  Nick’s innovative solutions for driving down costs aren’t winning many fans in the insurance industry, because they put the client’s needs ahead of the agent’s.  Discover how Nick can help you control the cost of your healthcare.

It appears the FDIC is playing games again...

In this recent Press Release from the FDIC, Director Sheila Bair pointedly touts the banking industry's strong profitability in the first quarter of 2011.  She then goes on to explain the reason banks were showing those profits.

Bair reported that bank profits for the quarter were $29 billion, or $11.6 billion over the same period a year earlier.  Sounds pretty strong, right?  Here is Bair's explanation for the spike in profitability.

"The industry shows continuing signs of improvement, though there is a limit to how far reductions in loan-loss provisions can boost industry earnings."

How did they do it?  A reduction in their loan-loss requirements - that is the  amount of money banks set aside to cover bad loans - from $51.6 billion in the first quarter of 2010 to just $20.7 billion - a decrease of $30.9 billion.  This decrease in loan-loss provisions returns banks to pre-2008 levels.  Is anybody honestly naive enough to believe loan defaults are back at 2007 levels?

ALL of the industry's first quarter 2011 profitability is directly attributable to this reduction in loan-loss provisions.  In fact, absent this balance sheet gimic, the industry would have lost almost $2 billion for the quarter - compared to a $17.4 billion profit a year ago.  Actual revenue fell by 3.2%.  This marks just the second time in 27 years that bank revenues have seen a decrease.

What's worse, each of those banks now face increased risk, with less than half the reserve to cover those losses.  As defaults pick up again, banks will have significantly less in reserve to cover those losses, creating an even greater rate of bank failure and... you guessed it - more bailouts.

More from the FDIC